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<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
title=bdgkusumo@volny.cz href="mailto:bdgkusumo@volny.cz">BDG Kusumo</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=nasional-list@yahoogroups.com
href="mailto:nasional-list@yahoogroups.com">nasional-list@yahoogroups.com</A>
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, February 05, 2006 10:42 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [nasional-list] Andai RI deklarasikan bangkrut</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial color=#ff0000><STRONG>ANDAI RI DEKLARASIKAN
BANGKRUT</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Sejak proses demokratisasi bergulir di
Indoneia, permasalahan utang luar negeri menjadi tema diskusi terbuka yang tak
habis-habisnya. </STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Tidak saja Kwik Kian Gie (KKG), banyak lagi
pakar dan penulis yang menganalisisnya sebagai hal yang sangat berat menelikung
ekonomi nasional. Laksana "keniscayaan" yang harus diusung oleh beberapa
generasi kedepan, tak ada jalan keluar yang optimal.
Dalam keadaan</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>seperti ini </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT
face=Arial size=2>sekira dua tahun silam ada yang "memelintir" nama KKG menjadi
<EM>Don Kwiksot, </EM>dari Don Quijot de la Macha, seorang tokoh dalam
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>susastra </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT
face=Arial size=2>Spanyol yang secara naif dan sia-sia berjuang melawan kincir
angin. Demikian KKG berupaya menghadapi dominasi IMF dan </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>utang </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT
face=Arial size=2>sebagai sebuah atributnya.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Telah beberapa bulan ini permasalahan utang
LN mencuat lagi. Belum lama ini saya mendadak ingat pada Argentina, yang sekira
2 tahun yang</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>lalu sebagai negara menyatakan bangkrut!
Setelah keberatan memanggul beban utang yang sebagai <EM>debt services
</EM>menjadi berdimensi</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>kolosal. Bagaimana nasib <EM>los
Argentinos</EM>, bangsa berjiwa <EM>los gauchos de las pampas</EM>, koboi
ugal-ugalan dari padang rumput disana </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT face=Arial
size=2>yang sangat </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>keras sifatnya, <EM>machos
</EM>yang cepat memakai belati untuk menyelesaikan berbagai
masalah?</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Apakah mereka, untuk meminjam istilah Bung
Karno, telah terpuruk dan terjerembab menjadi "bangsa kuli dan kuli antara
bangsa-bangsa" seperti bangsa </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT face=Arial
size=2>Indonesia selama jaman penjajahan doeloe? Tercenung, saya berinisiatif
untuk menanyakan kepada seorang kenalan yang akrab </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>dengan </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT
face=Arial size=2>permasalahan ekonomi global. Dan inilah
jawabannya:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV>Dear Bismo,</DIV>
<DIV><BR>1. What happened in Argentina several years ago was that due to
financial crisis, the country just disregarded its agreement signed with
the IMFand with other banks. They declared that from that moment on, they would
not pay debt service but only 10% its of foreign exchange earnings.</DIV>
<DIV><BR>2.Internally, as the authotities were afraid of overall panic, which
would induce people to withdraw their deposits, the govt. prohibited the money
wthdrawals from all the banks beyond US$ 200, i.e. maximum amount of total
withdawal from each account was two hundreds US$ and only once. There
would be another measure after 6 month. This measure was called "El corralito" (
a closed space where the chickens are raised, on the back side of
the country houses).</DIV>
<DIV><BR>3.In the outset they just did that, meaning that the debt service
payment (principal+interest) was 10% from the foreign exch. earnings, but
after the third years or so, they just didn't pay anything! </DIV>
<DIV><BR>4.In my opinion it was a fait acompli and one sided decision. Yes,
you're right. It affected tremendously the country's credit rating. Dishonoring
the country's international commitment, specially in the financial areas,
does no good to its international credibility and affects its international
standing. </DIV>
<DIV><BR>5.The IMF is viewed by all private Banks in the world as its leader.
Once you get a bad concept from them, you're just out of the international
monetary system and get isolated. Unless you own unlimited amount of
international reserve( and it's not the case), you're just finished!</DIV>
<DIV><BR>6.However, if you have bargaining power ( such as proven natural
resources to be exploited, future earnings from your allocated investment or
other future incomes coming from privatisation or from the tax increase.)
you can negotiate the country's payments rescheduling. That was what the
argentinians did, the Govt. sold everything, telecommunication companies, Banks,
Airline, Utility companies ( energy, water and oher public services ) and
improved its tax collections system and increasing its rates. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>And see, my friend, they still drink wine, dance tango and, playing
soccer beside paying its debts......<BR><BR>Regards, <BR><BR><BR><B><I>BDG
Kusumo <bdgkusumo@volny.cz></I></B> wrote:</DIV>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hallo, how's life?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>pls help me and explain what in hell had
happened in Argentina</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>after this country declared
bankruptcy?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Would Indonesia suffer so much on the ratings
should she</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>dare to declare bankcruptcy, too?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>B.Rgrds., </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>B. Gondokusumo</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG><EM>Gile</EM>! Saya juga kadang-kadang
minum red wine, yang katanya sebagai antioksidan baik untuk melawan radikal
bebas yang ada didarah kita, jadi </STRONG></FONT><STRONG><FONT face=Arial
size=2>bukan segala macam radikal yang gentayangan disana-sini. Sebagai
pecinta <EM>tango, </EM>terutama La Cumparsita, saya kaget. Sebagai <EM>fan
</EM>saya</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>harus perhitungkan bahwa team sepak bola
Ceko bisa saja bentrokan dengan <EM>los Argentinos</EM> di <EM>World
Soccer Championships </EM>bulan Juni ini di</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jerman.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Saya tidak lagi mengenal dengan baik
sifat dan apalagi ketangguhan bangsa kita. Apa ada jajaran pimpinan nasional
yang akan berani</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>mengambil langkah seperti Argentina?
Mungkinkah dalam "masa bakti" terkini? Atau setelah 2009? Sehingga bangsa ini
akan lebih lega dalam</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>melaksanakan <EM>nation building</EM>
tanpa keberatan beban utang luar negeri?</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Mungkinkah teman saya itu nantinya akan
menulis email ke saya yang ditutupnya sbb: </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><EM>"And see, my friend, they (the
Indonesians) still drink tea, dance dangdut and, playing badminton beside
paying their debts ...". </EM></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2><EM>VOILA !!! </EM> Dan siapa
tau ???</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><EM><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></EM></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Bismo
DG, </FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2>Praha, Rep
Ceko</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
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